Has China found a sneaky way in?
By Nik Miles
Possibly—but not without scrutiny.
• The UK–US agreement reduces tariffs to 10% for up to 100,000 British-made vehicles annually, but it doesn’t clearly define how Chinese-origin parts factor into that benefit.
• U.S. trade officials have explicitly targeted Chinese components in other deals (like EV batteries or rare earth metals), and they’ve raised red flags about Chinese involvement in British steel production, such as Chinese-owned British Steel or Liberty Steel operations.
• There’s no clause in the trade deal that bans Chinese parts, but U.S. enforcement agencies can—and likely will—use origin-tracing rules (like Rules of Origin under USMCA) to inspect British-assembled vehicles for Chinese subcomponents.
• Bottom line: Chinese suppliers can’t technically “sneak” goods in without risk, but British manufacturers using Chinese parts could still face punitive tariffs if U.S. authorities determine the vehicle no longer qualifies under trade rules.
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Who currently imports what from the UK into the U.S.?
1. Jaguar Land Rover (JLR)
• 2024 U.S. Sales: ~94,000 units
• Flagships: Defender, Range Rover, F-Type
• Status: Most exposed—nearly hit the 100,000 cap solo last year
2. MINI (BMW Group)
• 2024 U.S. Sales: 26,299 units
• Flagships: Countryman, Cooper
• Status: Smaller numbers, but could see gains under the cap if JLR throttles back
3. Rolls-Royce (BMW Group)
• 2024 U.S. Sales: 1,765 units
• Status: Likely unaffected—numbers are too small to worry about cap limits
4. Aston Martin
• 2024 U.S. Sales: 6,030 units
• Status: Should benefit nicely—most U.S.-bound models are low-volume, high-margin
5. McLaren
• 2024 U.S. Sales: ~2,100 units
• Status: Like Aston—too niche to hit the quota ceiling
6. Bentley (VW Group)
• 2024 U.S. Sales: ~3,180 units
• Status: Safe—numbers are modest but margins are critical
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Is the 100,000 Vehicle Cap a Problem?
Yes—for Jaguar Land Rover.
No—for everyone else.
• In 2024, UK exports to the U.S. totaled ~101,000 vehicles, and JLR alone sold ~94,000. That’s dangerously close to hogging the entire quota.
• MINI, Aston Martin, and McLaren might benefit if JLR has to limit exports to avoid going over the cap.
• Rolls-Royce and Bentley, with their ultra-premium, ultra-low-volume models, are essentially tariff-proof under the current cap.
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In Summary:
• No smoking gun, but China could influence British exports via component supply chains.
• UK automakers may need to prove their vehicles’ parts don’t originate in China to avoid future penalties.
• The 100,000-unit tariff cap creates a bottleneck, mostly for JLR, while boutique brands benefit quietly.
• If you’re an automaker using Chinese EV batteries, magnets, or steel, expect the U.S. to investigate, if not penalize.
